As the Mets embark on their World Tour series against the Phillies in London this weekend, their recent sweep of the Nationals offers a glimmer of hope.
However, with a 27-35 record, they sit near the bottom of the National League, just above the Rockies and Marlins. Remarkably, they are only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race, underscoring the NL’s overall mediocrity beyond its top teams. Six teams stand between the Mets and the final playoff spot currently held by the Padres.
Without significant improvements in the next six weeks, the Mets are likely to become sellers as the trade deadline approaches. The team has several impending free agents who could be prime trade candidates.
Names like Sean Manaea, J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana, and Jake Diekman may be on the move. However, the most intriguing trade prospect is first baseman Pete Alonso.
Alonso, nearing free agency, reportedly turned down a $158MM extension offer last summer. Despite no intention of trading him over the winter, the Mets haven’t revisited extension talks, leading to speculation about a potential trade.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted that multiple rival GMs expect the Mets to trade Alonso before the deadline, though this is more speculation than confirmed discussions.
The rationale for trading Alonso is straightforward. The Mets seem unlikely to prevent him from testing free agency, and Alonso will start his next contract at age 30.
Given Stearns’ history with the Brewers of avoiding heavy investments in defensively-limited sluggers, Alonso might not be the type of player Stearns wants to build around, especially with Alonso’s slight decline in hard contact rates.
Alonso remains a powerful hitter, but his hard contact rate has dipped from a peak of 47.3% in 2021 to 40.1% this season, placing him 129th out of 263 qualified hitters. Despite a respectable .238/.315/.477 line with 14 homers, this trend is concerning for a power-dependent player.
Trading Alonso could be the Mets’ best move if they doubt his long-term potential. Letting him walk in free agency would yield minimal return, while a trade would fetch more valuable assets, even if not top-tier prospects.
To keep Alonso, the Mets must believe in a realistic 2024 postseason path or feel confident in retaining him in free agency.
Owner Steve Cohen can outbid any competitor, and retaining Alonso, a fan favorite since his rookie season, seems logical.
However, the Mets’ recent restrained spending and potential interest in Juan Soto might shift priorities.
There’s a possibility the Mets trade Alonso before attempting to re-sign him next winter, a rare but plausible strategy indicating a calculated approach to rebuilding.
