Arne Slot’s Liverpool team begins their 2024/25 Premier League journey with a 250-mile trek to face newly promoted Ipswich Town.
Scheduled as the early Saturday kick-off, this match is set to attract global attention. Ipswich, returning to the Premier League for the first time since 2002, will have passionate fans cheering every move as they aim to propel the Tractor Boys to a strong start against Liverpool.
Ipswich has spent the summer upgrading their Portman Road stadium to meet Premier League standards, investing heavily in enhancements ranging from media rooms and hospitality areas to the home dressing room.
On the field, they’ve utilized their Premier League financial boost to retain the highly regarded head coach Kieran McKenna and secure star player Omari Hutchinson on a permanent deal from Chelsea after a successful loan spell last season.
There is a common belief that facing a newly promoted team on their home turf early in the season presents a unique challenge. Ipswich hopes to carry the momentum from their consecutive promotions over the past two seasons into the opening games. The excitement of a Premier League return for the first home match creates an electric atmosphere, reminiscent of a cup tie, which may diminish later in the season.
Recent history offers mixed signals. In the 2023/24 season, newly promoted Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United all lost their opening home matches, foreshadowing their eventual relegation, as they collectively managed only 36 points at home throughout the season.
Conversely, the prior season saw Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest both winning their first home games, while Fulham twice led against Liverpool at Craven Cottage, eventually drawing 2-2. Bournemouth triumphed over Aston Villa 2-0, and Forest edged out West Ham United 1-0, in front of an ecstatic City Ground crowd who hadn’t witnessed Premier League football in over two decades.
In the past five seasons, the 15 newly promoted teams have secured 22 points from their first home matches. If these results were consistent across all 19 home games, it would equate to 418 points—significantly higher than the 271 points they actually earned.
Over the past ten seasons, newly promoted clubs would have accrued 627 points if their opening home game performances mirrored the season’s results, close to the 640 points they eventually achieved.
These trends suggest that newly promoted sides are more likely to win their opening home game than other fixtures over the past five years, while a longer-term view shows little difference. Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur, who face Leicester City in their opener, will be hoping that the recent trend is an anomaly rather than a lasting pattern.
Interestingly, three seasons ago, Liverpool also began their campaign in East Anglia, defeating Ipswich’s local rivals Norwich City 3-0 at Carrow Road, with goals from Diogo Jota, Firmino, and Mohamed Salah. This could indicate that a trip to the far east of England might not be a bad way for Liverpool to start their season.
