How crucial are 3-point shots for an NBA team aiming for a championship?
The Denver Nuggets are about to explore this question more deeply than ever. Their notable move in the 2024 offseason was letting go of free agent Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, a key 3-and-D guard who had been a staple in their lineup for the past two seasons, shooting 41.5% from beyond the arc.
This departure coincided with the addition of Russell Westbrook — an esteemed Hall of Famer, but known more for his ability to drive the floor than to space it.
Historically, 12 of the last 13 NBA champions have been in the top 10 for 3-point percentage during the regular season. The only exception was the 2020 Lakers, whose unique circumstances in the bubble season may have skewed that trend.
Many championship teams have even ranked within the top five for 3-point attempts. The emphasis on 3-point shooting surged dramatically with the rise of Steph Curry. Last season, the Celtics pushed this trend to new heights by attempting 603 more 3-pointers than the league average.
In contrast, the Nuggets have relied on a strategy of low volume but high efficiency. They were fourth in the NBA for 3-point percentage and 25th in attempts during their title-winning season.
While their rankings fell slightly in the 2023-24 season, their core principle remained intact. They were still 10th in percentage at 37.4%, on the brink of what’s deemed essential for a modern championship contender, but their 2,560 attempts were the fewest in the league.
Even though the Nuggets have managed to defy the trend of excessive 3-point shooting, they still face significant challenges.
The loss of Caldwell-Pope, Reggie Jackson, and Justin Holiday — who collectively accounted for 728 regular-season attempts and a 38.7% shooting rate from three — leaves a notable gap. Their departure brings the team’s 3-point shooting percentage down to 36.9%, which would have been 14th in the league.
To address this, the Nuggets have added Russell Westbrook and Dario Saric, who together bring back 351 3-point attempts, reducing the net loss to 377 attempts. However, both new additions had a combined 33% shooting rate from three last season, with Saric contributing more to that figure.
Replacing the previous players’ output with Saric’s and Westbrook’s performance would result in a 3-point shooting percentage of 36.3% for the team, ranking 19th.
This calculation simplifies the situation, as player performance is influenced by various factors, including roles and teammates. Jackson, for instance, shot 44.3% from three when starting, compared to just 31.6% off the bench. Saric shot 43% on open threes and 38.1% off the catch last season.
Westbrook’s role is expected to be more about his overall impact rather than his shooting. Despite the majority of his 3-point attempts being wide-open, he made only 27.5% of those shots last season. Jokic’s playmaking can create open shots, but it’s up to the teammates to capitalize on them.
The returners also play a crucial role. Vlatko Cancar, who missed last season due to injury, could be an asset if he regains his previous form, where he shot 37.4% from three. However, whether he can achieve this consistently is uncertain, especially with his increased volume two years ago being a result of opportunity rather than consistent performance.
The Nuggets’ roster changes indicate a significant investment in younger players. Christian Braun is showing promise with a 38.4% shooting rate, while Peyton Watson, despite a 29.6% overall rate, demonstrated potential with a 37.7% rate on open shots. Julian Strawther, drafted to be a sharpshooter, will need to improve his consistency, having shot just 29.7% as a rookie.
The continuity of key players like Murray and Michael Porter Jr. is vital. They’ve led the team in 3-point attempts and efficiency in recent seasons, and their health is critical. Any injury to Murray or Porter could diminish Denver’s floor spacing. Murray’s performance has been erratic when injured, as seen in the Paris Olympics.
Denver’s offseason decisions, alongside these ongoing concerns, suggest that the team’s commitment to a low-volume, high-efficiency shooting approach is being tested. The foundation remains, but it’s less robust than before. The Orlando Magic, last season’s team with the fewest 3-point attempts, is now addressing this issue with Caldwell-Pope.
